December 29, 2016

Positive Impacts of Demonetisation: Power, Coal and Mines sectors saw impressive growth in Nov post currency-ban

Impact of De-monetisation On Power Generation 

Power generation growth in November on y-o-y basis was 8.53% as against October when it was 1.27%. As against Electricity Generation of 85.904 billion units in Nov 2015, Nov 2016 witnessed a figure of 93.235 –a growth of 8.53%. However, a month before de-monetisation, the growth in electricity generation in October 2016 stood at 99.709 BU or just a 1.27% increase y-o-y as in October 2015 electricity generation was 98.459 BU.

Electricity Generation (BU)	2015	2016	Growth
November	85.904	93.235	8.53%
October	98.459	99.709	1.27%

*November figures are provisional

Impact of De-monetisation On Coal production : Coal Production has been better in November than October. State owned, Coal India Ltd saw a 5.5% y-o-y growth in November 2016 as compared to -2% in October.

Coal Production of CIL in Nov 2016 stood at 50 MTE as against 47.4 MTE in Nov 2015. In Oct 2015, as against 44.4 MTE, coal production fell by 2.03% during Oct 2016. Thus de-monetisation helped take up coal production by 5.49%.

Coal Production (CIL) (MTE)	2015	2016	Growth
November	47.4	50	5.49%
October	44.4	43.5	-2.03%

Impact of Demonetisation On Metals and Mines: The mines and metals sector was no exception.

Aluminium: As compared to October, y-o-y growth in November of production of Aluminium metal from NALCO was 3.34%. Growth witnessed in production by NALCO of Aluminium Metal was 32164 MT in Nov 2016 as against 31123 MT. During the same period in 2015. before demonetisation, this growth was a mere 0.33% in October 2016 when Nalco’s Aluminium production was 32,495 MT as against 32,389 MT production during Oct 2015.

NALCO Aluminium Metal (MT)	2016	2015	Growth
November	32,164	31,123	3.34%
October	32,495	32,389	0.33%

Copper: As compared to October, y-o-y growth in November of production of Copper cathodes was 10.35%.  Production of Copper Cathode stood at 68607 MT in Nov 2016 as against 62174 MT during Nov 2015. Before de-monetisation, the month of October 2016 witnessed a negative growth of 1.14% at 56637 MT as against 57288 MT witnessed during Oct 2015.

Copper Cathode (MT)	2015	2016
November	62174	68607	10.35%
October	57288	56637	-1.14%

Lead : Even Lead production by HZL increased 30.36% in November on y-o-y basis as compared to -14% in October. HZL Lead production showed an remarkable increase at 13890 MT during Nov 2016 when compared to 10655 MT in Nov 2015.

Before de-monetisation, the growth was down at 11518 MT 14.04% in October 2016 as against 13400 MT in Oct 2015.

HZL (Lead) (MT)	2015	2016
November	10655	13890	30.36%
October	13400	11518	-14.04%

Impact of Demonetisation On DISCOM Arrears :

In addition to increase in production, there has been a substantial increase in collection of arrears by the state DISCOMs.

• Distribution Companies collections increased by more than Rs. 3,000 crore from 10th November to 15th December 2016 compared to last year.  The increase in collections is a clear indication of achieving affordable tariffs.
• For instance, the North Bihar Power Distribution Company saw a 204% increase, NESCO in Odisha saw a 251% increase, APDCL in Assam saw a 97% increase, TANGEDCO in Tamil Nadu saw a 97% increase.